Catastrophic Pandemics

Pandemics have affected humanity throughout the ages and history has shown how devastating they can be. The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people between the years 1918 and 1920. The most recent one, Covid-19, has in August 2024 infected more than 770 million people, and caused at least 7 million deaths. Yet it could have been far worse, had the virus been deadlier, stealthier or more contagious.

While we continue to face risks from natural pandemics that could spill over from animals (zoonosis), like bird flu, technological advancements in AI and synthetic biology increase the likelihood that in the coming decades we will be confronted with a pandemic that is significantly worse than the coronavirus. Such a situation could, for example, arise if dangerous infectious agents accidentally leak from research labs, or are deliberately produced and spread by malicious actors.

Further, little resources are invested into the area. For example, there are only around 10 people working on the global adoption of the Biological Weapons Convention, which prohibits the development of biological weapons. In contrast, the chemical and nuclear counterparts have 500 and 2,600 employees respectively.

However, new technical developments and the increased attention following COVID-19, present new opportunities for more strengthening defense against future pandemics. This page aims to provide you with a deeper understanding of the problem and guide you on how you can contribute to mitigating the risk of future pandemics.