Is the problem solvable?

Just because a problem is both large in scale and overlooked doesn’t necessarily mean you should work on it. You also need to think about whether there are promising solutions you can direct your efforts towards. There is no point in spending resources on initiatives that do not work. We assess solvability through the question “What percentage of the problem do we expect to solve if we double our efforts?”. The larger part we can fix with additional resources, the more solvable. This does not mean that you should only choose “easy” problems where there are already proven efforts. Difficult challenges may be worth tackling if they are overlooked and very large in scale. But if you’re choosing between two problems that are roughly equal and overlooked, you’re expected to make the biggest difference at the margin by choosing the one that offers the best opportunity to make progress.

Different problems require different solutions, the effect of which is difficult to evaluate. Ideally, we can use the most scientifically reliable method – randomized control trials. In other cases, we have to rely on theoretical reasoning. The following questions can help you reflect on how solvable a problem is:

• Are there interventions that are backed up by rigorous evidence? Many studies show, for example, that distribution of mosquito nets reduces the incidence of malaria.
• Is it possible to test a new and promising measure? Of course, we do not have data on all possible solutions yet. Therefore, it can be valuable to try new ideas on a small scale to get more information about whether we should put additional resources into them.
• Are there strong arguments that progress can be made in the problem? Some things are difficult to test in practice, so instead we have to make decisions on good theoretical grounds.
• Are there interventions that have a small, but realistic, chance of making a huge difference? For example, research or political campaigns.

If the answer to all of these questions is no, it is probably best to focus on another problem.